Can a Michelin Star Actually Hurt Your Restaurant?
From soaring expectations to financial strain, discover what the data says behind the coveted Michelin Guide restaurants during 2023-24
Nuno Freitas
CEO & Co-Founder
From Tires to Tiers: Unpacking the Michelin Mystique
In the world of dining, the Michelin Guide reigns supreme worldwide. More than just a list, it's a symbol of culinary excellence, a mark of distinction that can make or break a restaurant's reputation. For chefs and restaurateurs, a Michelin star is more than just recognition; it's a testament to their dedication, creativity, and unwavering pursuit of perfection. It can attract discerning diners, elevate their status, and solidify their place in culinary history.
Note
The Michelin Guide's origins might surprise you. It began not as a culinary compass, but as a marketing ploy by the Michelin tire company to encourage road trips (and thus, tire wear). The first edition, published in 1900, was a humble booklet offering maps, tips on changing tires, and a list of places to eat and rest along the way.
Here's a list of the many awards they grant restaurateurs:
- Michelin Stars: Awarded to restaurants offering exceptional cuisine, worth a special journey: One star: A very good restaurant in its category. Two stars: Excellent cuisine, worth a detour. Three stars: Exceptional cuisine, worth a special journey.
- Bib Gourmand: Recognizes establishments that provide good quality food at a good value.
- Michelin Plate: Highlights restaurants serving good food that may not have stars or Bib Gourmand status but are still worth a visit.
- Green Star: Awarded to restaurants at the forefront that prioritize locally sourced ingredients, minimize waste, and operate with an eco-conscious approach.
- Special Awards: The Michelin Guide also presents various special awards to recognize exceptional talent in areas like service, sommelier expertise, and young chef accomplishments.
Restaurants deemed exceptional by anonymous Michelin inspectors are awarded these coveted stars. Contrary to popular belief, not every restaurant listed in the guide receives a star. In fact, only a select few achieve this honor, with some even earning the coveted three-star rating, thrusting them into the global spotlight.
But what if this prestigious accolade came with a hidden cost?
Note
A study by UCL found that by the end of 2019, 40% of the restaurants awarded Michelin stars from 2005 to 2014 had closed.
Fame, it seems, "comes at a price". Yes, you read that right. While a Michelin star can undoubtedly boost a restaurant's profile and attract eager diners, it also brings a unique set of challenges that can push even the most talented chefs and restaurateurs to the brink.
We decided to take a look at the Michelin Guide's data over the past year and see if we can find more recent trends that are indicative of more interesting patterns that restaurants should know about.
Restaurants Come & Go, But the Michelin Guide Lives On
The guide stays relevant without drastic changes, and its global restaurant scene has shown steady growth over the past year, with new restaurants joining while others quietly step down.
The number of restaurants retiring isn't significantly changing the overall picture.
For chefs aspiring to be part of the Michelin Guide, this means opportunity is out there—it's competitive but steady. For diners, it promises both the comfort of trusted favorites and the excitement of discovering new places.
Important
From October 2023 to 2024, The Michelin Guide retired 1,700 restaurants, Added 2,400 restaurants, while nearly 100 restaurants have risen and retired within the span of the year, 6 of which lasted only a month. More than 16,000 restaurants have been unmoved by shifts this year, and continue to survive from before the start of the timeline.
When it comes to Michelin awards, most of the action is happening in the “Good Cooking” category, where new restaurants are outpacing those retiring by a significant margin.
This shows that while Michelin-starred restaurants is harder to come by, the guide is actively recognizing a broad range of high-quality establishments that don't necessarily hold stars but still meet Michelin’s standards. The Bib Gourmand category, which highlights great food at good value, also shows a healthy number of new additions, almost balancing out retirements.
At the higher star levels, the numbers are far more competitive—especially the fact that some three-star restaurants have retired, while a few new ones have entered the prestigious ranks.
Effects Can Be Noticed Country-Wide
Global restaurants aside, how have countries been faring individually on the Michelin Guide? What fraction of the total restaurants within the country did they gain / lose over the year and what can this tell us about the future?
The Michelin Guide when viewed through the lens of countries saw dramatic shifts in 2023-24, with a surge of new restaurants added in countries like 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇲🇽 Mexico, and 🇱🇻 Latvia. These countries dominated the list of newcomers, with Argentina gaining 71 new Michelin restaurants, Mexico adding 160, and Latvia welcoming 26.
While there were some retirements, the sheer number of additions vastly outpaced them. For example, 🇧🇷 Brazil added 163 new restaurants while only 26 were removed. This significant growth highlights the expanding global reach of the Michelin Guide and its recognition of culinary excellence in emerging markets
On the other hand, countries such as 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, and 🇦🇹 Austria have seen declines, with Turkey experiencing the most significant drop at 6% of the country's total restaurants lost, with no new restaurants yet on the Michelin Guide this year.
For tourism boards and local economies, these shifts can have a major impact. Countries gaining Michelin recognition have historically seen a boost in gastronomic tourism. Meanwhile, countries facing retirements need to recoup their losses and strategize how to bounce back.
Building on these trends, this next graph highlights the countries where Michelin restaurant movement has been the most balanced between new additions and retirements. The majority of countries fall within a fairly tight range, seeing around 10% of their restaurants either added or retired from the Michelin Guide. This balance suggests stability in these markets, with Michelin refreshing its selections without major upheavals.
🇵🇹 Portugal stands out as the most volatile country, with a 16% gain in new restaurants offset by the same amount of loss, resulting in no net movement overall. This indicates a dynamic and highly competitive market for restaurants looking to go Michelin, where new talent is emerging but maintaining recognition can be challenging.
For countries in this “net neutral” category, the data indicates a Michelin presence that’s being maintained through steady turnover, rather than large-scale growth or decline. For restaurateurs, this can be both reassuring and motivating: while it's clear that staying on the guide isn’t guaranteed, the potential for new entries keeps the landscape fresh or otherwise meaning they are preserving established culinary traditions while making room for innovation. For diners, it means these regions will continue to offer both familiar and new dining experiences year over year.
Perhaps a Pattern with Cuisines?
If we take the Michelin Guide’s categorization of restaurants as a benchmark, then the retirement of regional Italian cuisine carries a deeper significance. Categories like Tuscan, Emilian, Venetian, Sicilian, Romagnan and other similar local styles saw a combined retirement of about 30 restaurants - with no new restaurants in the same space. Meanwhile, generic Italian and Italian contemporary cuisines have added 140 restaurants while retiring about 100.
In contrast, Mexican, Vietnamese, and Brazilian cuisines experienced substantial growth, collectively adding over 160 restaurants to the Michelin Guide with minimal closures in their respective categories
The winning countries from the previous section such as Argentina, Mexico, Brazil and Latvia with the most new entrants have added restaurants based in Mexican, Contemporary, Italian, Brazilian, Grills, Japanese and otherwise a diverse selection of international cuisines not native to their respective countries with 1-3 of each cuisine per home country.
This signifies a move towards a more inclusive and interconnected global food scene, where culinary traditions are respected but not confined by borders.
Retired Restaurants from the Michelin Guide Don’t Have to Close Their Doors
Some countries are witnessing a surge of new Michelin-starred restaurants, transforming these vibrant lands into must-visit destinations for food aficionados. Local gourmands and intrepid culinary travelers alike are poised to descend upon these hotspots, eager to savor the cutting-edge cuisine.
But with this prestigious recognition comes the heat. These newly minted culinary stars must now dance in the spotlight, dazzling diners with unwavering consistency, breathtaking creativity, and service that anticipates every whim. The influx of eager patrons will bring heightened expectations, demanding a relentless pursuit of excellence.
Meanwhile, for those restaurants that have gracefully bowed out of the Michelin guide, fear not! Retirement from this esteemed list doesn't necessarily signify defeat. Many continue to flourish, cultivating a devoted clientele who value their unique offerings, Michelin star or no. These culinary rebels must charted a new course, embrace fresh ownership, or simply chosen a path less traveled – one that diverges from the rigid Michelin criteria.
While a spot on the Michelin Guide undoubtedly bestows prestige, its absence doesn't extinguish the flame of success.
Important
The Michelin guide may be a powerful force in the gastronomic universe, but it's not the sole arbiter of taste. The true test lies in their ability to maintain their hard-earned reputation and loyal following, proving that culinary brilliance transcends any single accolade. These restaurants, whether rising stars or seasoned veterans, are writing their own delicious destinies.
Supporting Articles from 2023-24
- Argentina’s restaurants shine brightly with the announcement of its first-ever MICHELIN Stars! - The Michelin Guide
- The MICHELIN Guide Returns to Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo - The Michelin Guide
- The MICHELIN Guide is Coming to Mexico - The Michelin Guide
- Latvia Joins The MICHELIN Guide Collection! - The Michelin Guide
- The Curse of the Michelin Star - The Economist
